World Politics · resolved market
Will Poilievre say "Tariffs" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd81c5a27450e02814642ad91cc94502c237cc6fe1f39c94b7c398a7f86232b9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9bf6…26bbbacked Yes | 64c | 31,822$20,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,365.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c03…40edbacked No | 36c | 31,802$11,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,353.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 19c | 1,175$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.57 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 13c | 627.27$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 32c | 561.04$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.64 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 15c | 513.88$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.5 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 6c | 333$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.02 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed No | 13c | 223.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.99 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 214.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.21 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 15c | 123.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.54 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 23c | 105.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 18c | 88.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 27c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 77c | 54.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.32per pick | 54cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 65c | 53.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94be…aeb5backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…e0eabacked Yes | 76c | 40.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +640.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…9260backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Poilievre say "Tariffs" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?this page
- Will Poilievre say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "Canada First" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Carbon Tax" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Common Sense" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "Elon" or "Musk" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "French" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "Immigration" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "India" or "Indian" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Land Lumber" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "Pipeline" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Trudeau" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Trump" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.