World Politics · resolved market
Will Poilievre say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb187c6b9547311659809f859338cf640dd5e42ea00077329200a2f47e1df5f23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc165…480dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,401$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,174$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 6c | 881.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8344…f29dbacked Yes | 6c | 763.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 734.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf105…96a1backed Yes | 8c | 546$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked Yes | 6c | 498.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd357…d80fbacked Yes | 7c | 427.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…8b28backed Yes | 14c | 365.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 7c | 341.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6019…8cb6backed Yes | 15c | 280.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…21f7backed Yes | 7c | 273.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a59…dbeabacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c1…b34bbacked Yes | 9c | 214.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 10c | 146$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…9260backed Yes | 13c | 124.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1527…120ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed No | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Poilievre say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?this page
- Will Poilievre say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "Canada First" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Carbon Tax" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Common Sense" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Elon" or "Musk" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "French" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "Immigration" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "India" or "Indian" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Land Lumber" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "Pipeline" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Tariffs" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "Trudeau" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Trump" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.