Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67c1e32e49f3d1a5d9ea85860194e7324255ecb5500c8f7d6d6455f83a8a8996
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 24c | 3,144$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,379.87 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 1,580$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.13 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6a…0040backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.53 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 52c | 920.25$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.72 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 50c | 467.4$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.95 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 47c | 363.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.14 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 60c | 341.95$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.39 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…c139backed Yes | 4c | 338.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…5d66backed Yes | 39c | 308.26$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 37c | 305.39$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 31c | 300$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 14c | 283.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed No | 75c | 260$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…2992backed Yes | 25c | 258.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 256.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.94 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked Yes | 56c | 212.1$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.84 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 28c | 207.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 28c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 192.59$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.4 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6965…a371backed Yes | 64c | 186.81$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 9c | 174$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.41 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…6bcdbacked Yes | 10c | 166.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…cbc4backed Yes | 78c | 162.72$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb1…0ffdbacked Yes | 75c | 133.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe55…77d6backed Yes | 71c | 130$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c4…97c9backed Yes | 28c | 107.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 69c | 106.31$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8914…dd24backed Yes | 30c | 101$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 74c | 98.97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 61c | 83.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…c91ebacked No | 54c | 82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 64c | 82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 80.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 70c | 79.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 26c | 76.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +6.7wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x423b…cb44backed Yes | 31c | 66.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07e…7db6backed Yes | 48c | 55.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 74c | 48.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eaa…ff50backed Yes | 36c | 47.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb76e…3d4cbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 51c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 28c | 38.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 74c | 38.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 72c | 33.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 58c | 31.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…d867backed Yes | 72c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8498…0e94backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad2…5f28backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 60c | 26.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ead…a207backed Yes | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a4…ae07backed Yes | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…9f15backed Yes | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 70c | 16.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 73c | 16.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on May 30?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 47.0% or higher on May 30?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on May 30?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on May 30?Yes won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.5% and 46.9% on May 30?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.