Movies · resolved market
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $80m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19e1f6e40a16721c161d7fef139e541768b1548059d65bd068aa2ff861aa3b0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf977…4f80backed No | 5c | 40,223$2,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,051.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 52c | 2,981$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.39 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked No | 16c | 2,253$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 65c | 1,796$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.86 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed No | 31c | 1,530$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.56 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 5c | 1,348$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 3c | 1,308$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 3c | 1,020$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 78c | 965.41$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.39 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…a183backed No | 28c | 699.44$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -86%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd67e…6b44backed No | 7c | 600$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked No | 57c | 546.4$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.97 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 3c | 541$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 521$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…087fbacked No | 30c | 338.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…4a8fbacked No | 4c | 331.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65c…262abacked No | 40c | 289.64$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 73c | 266.84$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 71c | 155.57$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 28c | 100.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf2…8b62backed No | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed No | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked No | 23c | 57.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…5eddbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…981ebacked Yes | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 78c | 29.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $80m?this page
- Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $72-76m?No won
- Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $76-80m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.