Music · resolved market
Will Taylor Swift say "Eras Tour" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae40d3bbfbd6d294d999b7d9c7bb67f7ecf66af3e14af15899e606d7352c5269
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 13c | 768.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 13c | 700$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 21c | 576.29$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 15c | 287.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…209abacked Yes | 66c | 222$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 14c | 219.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 16c | 156.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +198.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 14c | 71.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…6564backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 77c | 48.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…a03dbacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Taylor Swift say "Eras Tour" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?this page
- Will Taylor Swift say "Album" 5+ times during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Baby" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?No won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Engaged" or "Engagement" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Kanye" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?No won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Marry" or "Married" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Poet" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Pre-order" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Pregnant" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?No won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Super Bowl" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Swiftie" 3+ times during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?No won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Travis" 10+ times during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.