Music · resolved market
Will Taylor Swift say "Poet" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c81e126825f215e976dc918651b9fd4781e3c570bf505741c70ff24e8591d75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 60c | 645.28$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.04 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…2bedbacked No | 18c | 420$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 39c | 255.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 65c | 170.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…dd30backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed No | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 47c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +198.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e3…cad2backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Taylor Swift say "Poet" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?this page
- Will Taylor Swift say "Album" 5+ times during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Baby" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?No won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Engaged" or "Engagement" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Eras Tour" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Kanye" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?No won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Marry" or "Married" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Pre-order" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Pregnant" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?No won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Super Bowl" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Swiftie" 3+ times during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?No won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Travis" 10+ times during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.