Music · resolved market
Will Taylor Swift say "Travis" 10+ times during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e3bc42010c5b1979e1b5eb570e3d4e7eca1b54e1a59fcb7e88a2011ca81ffcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 43c | 359.25$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 54c | 162.35$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked No | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec00…f896backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 42c | 129.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…699fbacked No | 79c | 126$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 46c | 85.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…166bbacked Yes | 31c | 59.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 57c | 58.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…5b19backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 66c | 40.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed No | 65c | 40.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7117…3a3ebacked No | 45c | 38.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 69c | 15.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Taylor Swift say "Travis" 10+ times during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?this page
- Will Taylor Swift say "Album" 5+ times during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Baby" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?No won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Engaged" or "Engagement" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Eras Tour" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Kanye" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?No won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Marry" or "Married" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Poet" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Pre-order" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Pregnant" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?No won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Super Bowl" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift say "Swiftie" 3+ times during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.