Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Iran before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x119d4bdf872cd363bc5b8ee1593df67268accabc96de65bd45045f4ededa37e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 3c | 5,610$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.21 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 8c | 4,961$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.91 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 8c | 2,334$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.23 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268b…024fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,073$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…fd07backed Yes | 5c | 1,904$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,527$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.21 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9c…92f2backed Yes | 12c | 934.32$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x121a…3228backed Yes | 11c | 924.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca7…d306backed Yes | 12c | 911.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 76c | 906.29$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.51 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 6c | 845.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…8bf7backed Yes | 8c | 836$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4679…5d5bbacked Yes | 10c | 665.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…e030backed Yes | 5c | 647.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 5c | 591.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…68d3backed Yes | 22c | 562.66$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 7c | 508.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 380.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 16c | 357.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 80c | 349.99$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 6c | 308.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ed…de02backed Yes | 16c | 307.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 13c | 299.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 12c | 299.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 7c | 273.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 8c | 263.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2417…5d1ebacked Yes | 8c | 257.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27af…6ec8backed No | 79c | 250$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 7c | 225$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bb…a95bbacked Yes | 9c | 222.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 5c | 222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…9aefbacked Yes | 7c | 218.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 12c | 217.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…100bbacked Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 71c | 194$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 189.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a07…0d37backed Yes | 21c | 179.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…6578backed No | 75c | 157.89$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe73f…2f6fbacked Yes | 17c | 136.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 21c | 130.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4298…f07dbacked No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…9474backed Yes | 13c | 88.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ad…de4abacked Yes | 15c | 85.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…f7aabacked Yes | 19c | 69.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 73c | 66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7777…c659backed Yes | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b91…1af0backed Yes | 29c | 45.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe69b…f24fbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed No | 69c | 18.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.