Tweets · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani tweet 40 or more times Tuesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dfba9cac80540571a78f89366543cbd7de1339b25de9254d9a9e618a9a08916
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34e8…6ea3backed No | 4c | 933.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 75c | 862.14$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked No | 12c | 835.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…ab29backed No | 6c | 770.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf513…8297backed No | 45c | 751.73$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 53c | 533.99$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 47c | 501.03$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.86 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 38c | 368.2$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.65 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 69c | 316$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.12 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa28f…89fdbacked No | 4c | 294.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a3…5adabacked Yes | 35c | 284$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 42c | 254.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 45c | 161$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…f06ebacked Yes | 71c | 160$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…aa29backed No | 33c | 152.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.38 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x293d…2d5fbacked No | 74c | 134.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes | 63c | 130.36$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca80…316abacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd124…b1c6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…ab14backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…c1febacked Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 34cpaid | +198.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…c6f9backed Yes | 40c | 38.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2740…cb9bbacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed No | 55c | 30.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e99…705cbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…e90dbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…b449backed No | 76c | 15.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.