TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dvalishviliof O’Malley, Dvalishvili
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$321,919
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$315,428

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $321,919 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 379 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe64f…44a5backed O’Malley56c60,976$33,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,881.42540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f47…af93backed Dvalishvili46c27,108$12,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,560.95560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Dvalishvili46c25,150$11,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,572.96966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+53.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Dvalishvili44c22,000$9,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,369.974934.7%17 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Dvalishvili45c18,587$8,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,228.588140.7%33 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a69…a466backed O’Malley55c15,813$8,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,757.83922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.34per pick57cpaid-60.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0aaa…77b7backed Dvalishvili45c15,645$7,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,576.832147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc81a…93acbacked O’Malley52c15,437$8,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,037250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd0a…63abbacked O’Malley54c12,820$6,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,861.481330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…03b9backed Dvalishvili55c10,745$5,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,789.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a12…01cebacked Dvalishvili46c10,560$4,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,666.691457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a14…0762backed Dvalishvili64c10,026$6,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,651.661457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb86b…6bdebacked O’Malley0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Dvalishvili50c8,663$4,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,331.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+116.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked O’Malley7c7,682$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.2214129.8%42 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09af…d337backed Dvalishvili45c7,541$3,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,128.954100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+120.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked O’Malley51c6,888$3,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5021250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc65e…1502backed Dvalishvili50c6,076$3,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,037.14771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+56.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e2b…dcfebacked O’Malley49c5,845$2,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,869.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb331…1786backed Dvalishvili51c5,718$2,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,796.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Dvalishvili46c5,284$2,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,848.4517158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce8…4a44backed O’Malley53c5,025$2,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,662.47250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Dvalishvili57c4,386$2,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,887.743066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Dvalishvili50c4,000$1,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,009.997853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dbd…af92backed Dvalishvili46c3,978$1,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,128.471050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked O’Malley50c3,799$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0434…2328backed O’Malley55c3,651$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.5520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed Dvalishvili50c3,463$1,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,731.722751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb27d…fc9cbacked Dvalishvili52c3,339$1,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,603.08450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed Dvalishvili42c3,333$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,933.142638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Dvalishvili51c3,280$1,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.213857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29c4…a48bbacked O’Malley49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4005…3060backed O’Malley51c2,941$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Dvalishvili48c2,811$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,461.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+86.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe8…456bbacked O’Malley55c2,727$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Dvalishvili48c2,590$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.153661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f11…157abacked O’Malley50c2,500$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Dvalishvili58c2,410$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.2653956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9188…d309backed O’Malley52c2,116$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb866…36d4backed Dvalishvili48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6727…db84backed Dvalishvili75c2,041$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.04366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd8…2994backed O’Malley48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x900d…2961backed O’Malley50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21d2…177fbacked O’Malley50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed O’Malley55c1,921$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.443342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2516…2353backed O’Malley52c1,919$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c0…3f84backed Dvalishvili51c1,885$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.94425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-51.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a77…9242backed O’Malley55c1,818$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8163…1ce8backed O’Malley55c1,818$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+30.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfda…4fe6backed O’Malley48c1,800$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed O’Malley48c1,750$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed O’Malley5c1,736$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.42650%13 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0d…56d1backed O’Malley47c1,440$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd13…e6f1backed O’Malley2c1,419$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.85140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf59e…39cfbacked O’Malley45c1,400$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.99520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1856…1964backed O’Malley54c1,360$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.47955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked Dvalishvili44c1,342$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.18633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb73c…45f2backed Dvalishvili52c1,308$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.922100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+157.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed O’Malley52c1,266$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.666248.4%30 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed O’Malley50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60013650%68 W · 68 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd94…0b01backed Dvalishvili52c1,200$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.996946.4%32 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21e7…5e93backed O’Malley35c1,137$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…772fbacked O’Malley22c1,116$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78fa…103abacked O’Malley52c1,115$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.841421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-68.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4404…c5b7backed O’Malley54c1,105$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2901…070abacked O’Malley49c1,021$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked O’Malley45c1,005$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.191020%2 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Dvalishvili50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5006050%30 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed Dvalishvili42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51e7…a5debacked O’Malley51c990.07$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2c…9965backed O’Malley54c944.63$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed O’Malley50c934.9$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.952055%11 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed O’Malley54c924.94$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.4712134.7%42 W · 79 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bc…7513backed O’Malley52c827.04$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x129f…78d9backed O’Malley51c825.69$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e1…921ebacked O’Malley39c802.64$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.82540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-49.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b8c…abbabacked Dvalishvili46c780$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.8757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb74…f7b8backed O’Malley52c770.29$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x064d…a0e4backed Dvalishvili51c769.68$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.14944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d0…8e63backed O’Malley38c755.16$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f08…a742backed Dvalishvili49c750$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3851060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb789…706fbacked O’Malley47c745.07$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4258…feecbacked O’Malley50c718.69$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ca…1c95backed O’Malley49c718.16$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae6f…7399backed O’Malley54c701.9$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.572356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb49…97a0backed Dvalishvili45c699.92$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.96250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee3…1b0fbacked O’Malley52c695.47$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.73250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf842…682dbacked O’Malley51c685.5$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.271030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-47.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b0b…f9d6backed O’Malley49c599.99$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.993240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4437…503ebacked O’Malley51c590.99$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.891546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick65cpaid-34.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2800…2081backed O’Malley52c576.38$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.49650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ad…4c76backed O’Malley36c566.72$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fac…f9a4backed O’Malley50c559$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49de…4dc5backed Dvalishvili78c540.09$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Dvalishvili43c536$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.5220249%99 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb295…4ee4backed O’Malley50c519.85$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.931136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe28a…8072backed O’Malley51c499.98$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.992166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb610…fa36backed Dvalishvili44c491$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Dvalishvili44c480.09$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.7622144.3%98 W · 123 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Dvalishvili48c467.41$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.0510149.5%50 W · 51 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.