UFC · resolved market
Rodriguez vs. Osbourne
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae1da9db64f2b035a66878c5c93cc8e5f695f8a6d51796273258cd2197956b3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rodriguezof Rodriguez, Osbourne
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe64f…44a5backed Rodriguez | 61c | 9,565$5,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,775.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Osbourne | 40c | 7,215$2,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,885.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Osbourne | 39c | 3,683$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.87 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Osbourne | 39c | 3,505$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Osbourne | 41c | 2,927$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Osbourne | 37c | 2,812$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…6c9abacked Osbourne | 39c | 2,750$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Osbourne | 39c | 2,498$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Osbourne | 39c | 1,500$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8234…39c7backed Rodriguez | 63c | 1,317$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…39cfbacked Rodriguez | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Osbourne | 41c | 853.81$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.4 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Osbourne | 2c | 787$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Osbourne | 37c | 749.97$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Osbourne | 3c | 733$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Osbourne | 3c | 733$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Osbourne | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc103…1138backed Osbourne | 27c | 444.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…6b58backed Rodriguez | 63c | 422.22$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…afc7backed Rodriguez | 66c | 378.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Rodriguez | 79c | 364.97$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed Rodriguez | 57c | 357.39$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rodriguez | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Rodriguez | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Rodriguez | 53c | 253.89$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.04 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449b…3b70backed Osbourne | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49de…4dc5backed Rodriguez | 65c | 231.97$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…d419backed Osbourne | 8c | 230.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…dd7abacked Rodriguez | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…103abacked Osbourne | 47c | 185.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa649…cce2backed Rodriguez | 63c | 157.43$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…c835backed Rodriguez | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Rodriguez | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked Osbourne | 43c | 145.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…b987backed Rodriguez | 79c | 111$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Osbourne | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7941…c675backed Osbourne | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…177fbacked Osbourne | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Rodriguez | 66c | 85.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41eb…b169backed Rodriguez | 71c | 80.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed Rodriguez | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403b…7b70backed Rodriguez | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Osbourne | 42c | 68.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09cb…218ebacked Osbourne | 39c | 67.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…7894backed Osbourne | 36c | 64.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Rodriguez | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Osbourne | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Osbourne | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Rodriguez | 60c | 47.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Rodriguez | 58c | 47.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddcd…39d9backed Rodriguez | 63c | 40.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…7afbbacked Osbourne | 30c | 37.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Rodriguez | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcb…a83bbacked Osbourne | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4df…f1d8backed Rodriguez | 62c | 27.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0c…7d61backed Rodriguez | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…0c61backed Rodriguez | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…129dbacked Rodriguez | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…6d3bbacked Rodriguez | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rodriguez vs. Osbournethis page
- Grasso vs. ShevchenkoShevchenko won
- Ortega vs. LopesLopes won
- O’Malley vs. DvalishviliDvalishvili won
- Zellhuber vs. RibovicsRibovics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.