UFC · resolved market
Ortega vs. Lopes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc2843f7e80c03ea72e2fc0b24f9788c503cb67a2d31f5ae7ce1806a58a258bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lopesof Ortega, Lopes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe64f…44a5backed Ortega | 39c | 20,635$8,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,014.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Lopes | 63c | 12,260$7,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,580.15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Ortega | 3c | 11,217$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.88 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked Lopes | 64c | 10,585$6,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,815.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Lopes | 62c | 5,679$3,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,177.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Lopes | 61c | 4,000$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Lopes | 63c | 3,042$1,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Ortega | 8c | 1,819$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.71 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…d309backed Ortega | 38c | 1,303$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Lopes | 62c | 1,052$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.94 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Lopes | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Lopes | 62c | 805.95$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.26 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Ortega | 36c | 749.96$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.98 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…7c5cbacked Ortega | 21c | 729.55$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2516…f107backed Lopes | 69c | 719.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.45 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Lopes | 66c | 599.98$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.99 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Ortega | 36c | 588.68$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.93 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…1c95backed Ortega | 39c | 525$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…39cfbacked Ortega | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Lopes | 72c | 439.39$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.09 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…2ff6backed Lopes | 64c | 426.25$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.45 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Ortega | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Ortega | 36c | 375.54$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…177fbacked Lopes | 68c | 356.81$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49de…4dc5backed Ortega | 39c | 341.64$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Ortega | 37c | 337.75$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.97 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fa…1a66backed Lopes | 63c | 320.7$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Ortega | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c4…a48bbacked Lopes | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db1…8e4ebacked Ortega | 37c | 271.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Lopes | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Lopes | 66c | 250$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Ortega | 38c | 244.06$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Lopes | 66c | 220.71$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee3…1b0fbacked Lopes | 61c | 210$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked Ortega | 18c | 194.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3598…5b3fbacked Lopes | 64c | 181.25$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…9b8bbacked Lopes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…103abacked Ortega | 17c | 146.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41eb…b169backed Ortega | 36c | 140.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Lopes | 60c | 137.16$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Lopes | 61c | 128.21$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Lopes | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Ortega | 36c | 106.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…7894backed Ortega | 37c | 102.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Ortega | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3717…a54fbacked Ortega | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c5…ca4dbacked Ortega | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403b…7b70backed Lopes | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…129dbacked Ortega | 40c | 87.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Lopes | 61c | 82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f6…d54fbacked Lopes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…1cfbbacked Ortega | 17c | 76.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Lopes | 62c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…da69backed Ortega | 40c | 73.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…5e01backed Ortega | 38c | 67.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x449b…3b70backed Ortega | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Ortega | 16c | 63.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Lopes | 61c | 63.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b9…d6efbacked Ortega | 38c | 60.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec78…1856backed Lopes | 65c | 53.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed51…77acbacked Ortega | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb500…6db0backed Ortega | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1716…7554backed Ortega | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Lopes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…af29backed Ortega | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…7afbbacked Ortega | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Lopes | 67c | 49.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf63…4bd9backed Lopes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…2602backed Ortega | 32c | 47.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Lopes | 62c | 44.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…6d3bbacked Ortega | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3178…277dbacked Lopes | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 44cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…3aedbacked Lopes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbf…08a1backed Lopes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d0…50b9backed Lopes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfec2…4138backed Lopes | 63c | 37.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Ortega | 33c | 33.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…02f9backed Lopes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…0c61backed Lopes | 63c | 30.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16e…e2b9backed Lopes | 63c | 29.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe667…f60fbacked Ortega | 37c | 29.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…0bafbacked Lopes | 64c | 28.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa57…9171backed Ortega | 38c | 27.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf5…ed9dbacked Lopes | 64c | 26.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…20ebbacked Ortega | 39c | 25.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5adb…42dbbacked Ortega | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…084abacked Lopes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Lopes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc8…c2bdbacked Lopes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…2449backed Lopes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1458…695dbacked Lopes | 63c | 18.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ortega vs. Lopesthis page
- Grasso vs. ShevchenkoShevchenko won
- O’Malley vs. DvalishviliDvalishvili won
- Rodriguez vs. OsbourneRodriguez won
- Zellhuber vs. RibovicsRibovics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.