Premier League · resolved market
Will Man City win the 2023-24 Champions League?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a3d31049f233dcd0a7d977cef6868e66f2f3b7024910374af55337a65ef8b20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 35c | 5,000$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745b…ff04backed Yes | 33c | 2,323$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.74 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee3…1069backed Yes | 33c | 2,121$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 33c | 1,957$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.35 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 36c | 831.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c5…923dbacked Yes | 43c | 795.44$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 34c | 700$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed No | 65c | 686.66$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.33 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Yes | 33c | 307$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.31 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b9…4f10backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…2249backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 65c | 259.93$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.98 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…b995backed No | 68c | 222.51$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939e…20aebacked Yes | 35c | 209.81$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865e…3013backed No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf178…07acbacked No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +153.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236c…5931backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b99…ea8abacked Yes | 35c | 130.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4185…b27cbacked Yes | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6799…6410backed No | 65c | 99.14$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d5…54f4backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…cd34backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef8e…685ebacked No | 66c | 77.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed No | 68c | 64.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f329backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…ac3fbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8910…2995backed Yes | 34c | 48.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fc…b335backed No | 66c | 48.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe780…28fbbacked No | 66c | 48.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6427…dd03backed No | 66c | 46.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6540…1f72backed No | 66c | 46.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd20…aca4backed No | 65c | 43.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0a…ee15backed No | 69c | 42.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0548…bf81backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…80e9backed No | 67c | 40.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea03…0aa1backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec97…7696backed No | 68c | 39.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…fe42backed No | 68c | 38.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e1…d7a0backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…e1c9backed No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked No | 66c | 36.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4046…f541backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4eb…f9eabacked No | 65c | 35.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d0…a043backed No | 68c | 35.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…5135backed No | 66c | 33.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179b…7676backed No | 66c | 33.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6697…9a35backed No | 69c | 31.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8d…5410backed No | 69c | 31.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcafb…f4ebbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…08aebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…ede6backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…83f0backed No | 68c | 27.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b84…c0e3backed No | 68c | 27.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…e450backed No | 65c | 27.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81da…9367backed No | 68c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e28…a93abacked No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…7d35backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e6…d35ebacked No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2708…108cbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Man City win the 2023-24 Champions League?this page
- Will Arsenal win the 2023-24 Champions League?No won
- Will Atletico Madrid win the 2023-24 Champions League?No won
- Will Barcelona win the 2023-24 Champions League?No won
- Will Bayern win the 2023-24 Champions League?No won
- Will Dortmund win the 2023-24 Champions League?No won
- Will Inter win the 2023-24 Champions League?No won
- Will Napoli win the 2023-24 Champions League?No won
- Will PSG win the 2023-24 Champions League?No won
- Will PSV win the 2023-24 Champions League?No won
- Will Porto win the 2023-24 Champions League?No won
- Will Real Madrid win the 2023-24 Champions League?Yes won
- Will Real Sociedad win the 2023-24 Champions League?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.