TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Bayern win the 2023-24 Champions League?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$120,153
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,196

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,153 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0ea…cbf1backed Yes11c23,078$2,539 inLost-$2,538.61625%4 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes12c13,853$1,662 inLost-$1,662.361618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14b…b944backed Yes11c4,584$491 inLost-$491.462437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4618…4774backed Yes19c1,829$349 inLost-$348.85333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x745b…ff04backed Yes18c1,822$328 inLost-$327.962231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e70…9047backed Yes17c657.96$113 inLost-$112.541936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x576b…ebb1backed Yes18c555.56$100 inLost-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6764…75f1backed Yes13c384.62$50 inLost-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf24f…15b2backed Yes18c276.9$50 inLost-$50.489936.4%36 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes16c266.67$43 inLost-$4312959.7%77 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb28…bd69backed Yes17c200$34 inLost-$3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc0…8b2fbacked Yes11c181.82$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…3c92backed Yes12c166.67$20 inLost-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdee9…7445backed Yes12c137.83$17 inLost-$16.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x78bb…3f8bbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost-$24.51060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+35.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xffa1…cd34backed Yes13c90$12 inLost-$12.1616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67f1…3e4fbacked Yes25c69.88$17 inLost-$17.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77a2…7cbfbacked No76c26.32$20 inWon+$6.32450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.