NBA · resolved market
NBA Play-In: Lakers vs Pelicans
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x141f2fb7dc316ca019d7ce9d0fe530a78e18b637ea84211d8f4cebe43742a7bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Lakers, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Lakers | 49c | 2,785$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.95 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Pelicans | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Lakers | 49c | 1,035$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.55 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Lakers | 50c | 983$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.43 | 191 | 52.4%100 W · 91 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Lakers | 49c | 883$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.33 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Pelicans | 49c | 659.82$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.31 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Lakers | 52c | 600$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Lakers | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…96a5backed Lakers | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…a540backed Lakers | 51c | 59.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…981dbacked Lakers | 51c | 51.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…8b7bbacked Lakers | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2af7…7b3abacked Lakers | 49c | 30.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Lakers | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.