Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran blame Israel for helicopter crash?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65fe5f6d1e37e6dd7d58e593842fe59547ec42fe4710f7c58c952144a982eb0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2061…8a92backed Yes | 10c | 3,305$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.57 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…fcf6backed Yes | 7c | 3,094$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be0…0154backed Yes | 2c | 2,295$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…d06dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,211$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 5c | 2,041$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96f5…fd4fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,653$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bf…d0a0backed Yes | 10c | 1,275$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…08b5backed Yes | 13c | 1,133$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…9b44backed Yes | 7c | 1,046$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -80%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…eaf9backed Yes | 14c | 1,002$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Yes | 3c | 606.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 17c | 588.47$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 5c | 586.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…d185backed Yes | 9c | 553.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a2…e57dbacked Yes | 16c | 290.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1765…9897backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Yes | 9c | 163.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…f2f4backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…7538backed Yes | 17c | 124.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd262…8553backed Yes | 18c | 110.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 10c | 103.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…0a3cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.