Movies · resolved market
Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 57m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe55dc806f7948aa8bd520ae1a553d1d0a10d3ff5edda85c4ef8437216aa1ac73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $228,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $246,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x045e…ba44backed No | 51c | 12,779$6,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,491.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…ee77backed Yes | 49c | 12,223$6,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,209.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 47c | 8,134$3,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,349.33 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 71c | 4,382$3,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.09 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…e9adbacked No | 28c | 4,064$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 0c | 3,402$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 72c | 2,992$2,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.58 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 68c | 2,406$1,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.46 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 67c | 2,397$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.08 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 35c | 2,375$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.72 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…1905backed No | 35c | 2,332$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,780 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 42c | 1,960$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.28 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked No | 12c | 1,750$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed No | 38c | 1,624$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.16 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…bec0backed No | 23c | 1,589$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed No | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 67c | 1,337$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.85 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed No | 28c | 1,200$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…7ff5backed No | 3c | 1,167$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 36c | 999.99$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 21c | 995.37$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.12 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 11c | 882.74$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 49c | 864.04$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.24 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4f…18d3backed Yes | 61c | 863$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 33c | 652.74$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.93 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked No | 79c | 651.73$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.94 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 54c | 550$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.1 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x519a…1551backed No | 54c | 509.13$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 61c | 504.25$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.83 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d4…828fbacked No | 48c | 502.84$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…b30abacked Yes | 8c | 467$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +525%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 52c | 451.65$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.04 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…5106backed No | 3c | 407.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 66c | 349.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 61c | 325$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.75 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 32c | 321.94$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.95 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe910…a9b8backed No | 19c | 263.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 42c | 261.05$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.79 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 56c | 254.38$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.14 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…348abacked No | 34c | 241.44$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9880…82d6backed No | 50c | 207.55$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed No | 24c | 205.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 56c | 200$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40c…bc64backed No | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…0912backed No | 26c | 196.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked No | 20c | 189.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 18c | 172.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134f…cdb6backed No | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8f…3c8abacked Yes | 68c | 139.01$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 56c | 134.57$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 102.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb186…310cbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…a74abacked No | 31c | 97.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f23…dc0cbacked No | 70c | 87.43$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…adf5backed No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 50c | 80.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6381…5ea2backed Yes | 54c | 71.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…beb8backed No | 36c | 57.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 56.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 72c | 46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 65c | 42.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…1b6cbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b23…5e5ebacked No | 35c | 34.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf81…e590backed Yes | 76c | 31.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fe…cd9abacked Yes | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb93…e045backed Yes | 70c | 28.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…b73ebacked Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…4a12backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 60c | 17.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 75c | 16.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 57m?this page
- Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 47m?No won
- Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 47m and 52m?No won
- Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?No won
- Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 42m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.