Movies · resolved market
Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 47m and 52m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb13a3b5d43c45eedeaf7871251d6c8036b9fc1a07dcdec999e4e38efdca94c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 7,114$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.3 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…bec0backed Yes | 6c | 6,350$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5a…4cc4backed Yes | 1c | 6,327$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…e9adbacked Yes | 5c | 4,397$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 1c | 4,026$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed Yes | 6c | 2,775$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 79c | 2,237$1,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.3 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 23c | 2,222$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.06 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,948$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.32 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,900$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.34 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…fcf3backed Yes | 3c | 1,515$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,471$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 73c | 1,111$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.97 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 76c | 1,039$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.24 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 3c | 917.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…901abacked Yes | 5c | 834.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 14c | 717.33$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 23c | 622.79$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.28 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 593.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked Yes | 5c | 522.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fe…cd9abacked Yes | 5c | 197.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 49c | 161.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 20c | 145.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 97.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 27c | 63.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 47m and 52m?this page
- Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 47m?No won
- Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?No won
- Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 57m?Yes won
- Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 42m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.