Us Politics · resolved market
Trump sentenced to no prison time?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x325038359610a566c0963c9f0ea2ea33b2ddedf7808898c4ed4166787213f1b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,514,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,252,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,514,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7410…3b67backed No | 2c | 105,095$1,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,947.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed Yes | 77c | 21,001$16,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,909.25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked No | 19c | 18,558$3,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,498.12 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c8…d3e7backed No | 20c | 12,851$2,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,570.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c58…01aebacked No | 19c | 12,551$2,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,337.51 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 1c | 11,240$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.45 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 8,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c91…a4aebacked No | 15c | 7,618$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…6ef6backed Yes | 78c | 7,449$5,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…9d64backed No | 21c | 7,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…d678backed No | 1c | 6,670$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…b45bbacked No | 1c | 6,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…ea64backed No | 2c | 4,762$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 77c | 4,137$3,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.07 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8f…a260backed No | 17c | 4,130$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0989…4d83backed No | 3c | 3,894$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked No | 8c | 3,821$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf1…e4c7backed No | 28c | 3,580$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…1971backed Yes | 75c | 3,000$2,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…3129backed No | 3c | 2,954$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.45 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc740…9c29backed Yes | 76c | 2,360$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 21c | 2,187$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.29 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…336cbacked No | 17c | 2,000$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d56…074abacked No | 1c | 1,645$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec93…502ebacked No | 19c | 1,613$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…96a5backed Yes | 78c | 1,533$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…c203backed No | 1c | 1,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 79c | 1,452$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.93 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a1…4369backed Yes | 80c | 1,253$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92b…e43ebacked No | 1c | 1,204$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd828…519ebacked No | 19c | 1,069$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf86…7c41backed No | 2c | 999.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6d…10a0backed No | 14c | 999.48$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3040…42e7backed No | 3c | 862.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0db2backed No | 4c | 815.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569e…67dbbacked Yes | 76c | 800$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed No | 15c | 651.47$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fe…bd28backed No | 2c | 610.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda88…ee37backed Yes | 78c | 596$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4608…b1f3backed No | 4c | 559.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20fd…91c7backed No | 3c | 519.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 77c | 519.48$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.48 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked No | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…b4c3backed No | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745c…22bcbacked Yes | 79c | 482.94$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…07c8backed No | 15c | 468.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe28a…8072backed Yes | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938f…6953backed Yes | 80c | 396.55$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…f046backed No | 3c | 384.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a57…695fbacked Yes | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +180.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…a395backed Yes | 74c | 370$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…dbb5backed Yes | 79c | 359.76$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x486c…3d03backed No | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5a…ed52backed No | 18c | 300$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…f0afbacked Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 53cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…9b85backed No | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18f7…3d7dbacked Yes | 78c | 255.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…3a9fbacked Yes | 77c | 207.79$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa12…a8cdbacked No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…1d13backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f9…5ec7backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 6c | 197.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Yes | 79c | 190$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c6…a001backed No | 70c | 186.63$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 76c | 185$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…44dabacked No | 13c | 181.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc51e…7c7fbacked No | 14c | 171.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c1…f571backed No | 14c | 160.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96f…0127backed Yes | 76c | 160.17$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78d…3178backed No | 14c | 160$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…9afdbacked No | 14c | 159.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…68f9backed No | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked Yes | 74c | 151.06$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcb…2027backed No | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d73…23c5backed No | 14c | 147.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c61…021cbacked No | 17c | 143.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c20…aa84backed Yes | 80c | 136.29$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…85d9backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30c…ddfbbacked Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +48%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…3873backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0acc…97f5backed Yes | 76c | 131.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…2d08backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b8…b32fbacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39b…67e6backed Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5621…04a1backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…1b70backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfb…e569backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b3…55c7backed Yes | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0be…999abacked No | 22c | 120.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…6600backed No | 19c | 119.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x064d…5c82backed No | 14c | 114.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa5…e277backed Yes | 79c | 113.29$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 76c | 112.33$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 80c | 110.29$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdb…f19dbacked Yes | 78c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…f428backed No | 23c | 108.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d333backed Yes | 76c | 102.63$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump sentenced to no prison time?this page
- Trump sentenced to 48 or more months prison time?No won
- Trump sentenced to between 0 and 11 months prison time?No won
- Trump sentenced to between 12 and 23 months prison time?No won
- Trump sentenced to between 24 and 35 months prison time?No won
- Trump sentenced to between 36 and 47 months prison time?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.