Us Politics · resolved market
Trump sentenced to between 0 and 11 months prison time?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3bbcd8fb3be5275e40d789906b5731f7fdd799a977528b3d018984ad05a0276
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,025,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $359,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,025,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd024…b64cbacked Yes | 0c | 115,740$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…0218backed Yes | 0c | 99,997$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…0419backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…3d01backed Yes | 8c | 16,496$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 1c | 16,267$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.53 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0db2backed Yes | 0c | 14,594$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf0…003dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,600$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x396d…dfa3backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbccd…c5e5backed Yes | 7c | 10,298$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2769…62b8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4be…6a58backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f5…22dabacked Yes | 0c | 9,375$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…d054backed Yes | 0c | 9,125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf65c…7c6dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,657$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eba…c62cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,657$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…31adbacked Yes | 0c | 6,657$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13cf…4a44backed Yes | 0c | 6,657$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50cf…a045backed Yes | 0c | 6,611$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e0…b23fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,601$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…e9ebbacked Yes | 0c | 6,338$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 14c | 5,500$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 9c | 5,460$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.44 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe13e…c564backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…d4a9backed Yes | 1c | 4,600$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…80cdbacked Yes | 0c | 3,766$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 7c | 3,657$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.5 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb202…1e15backed Yes | 12c | 3,500$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e63…22fabacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9f…5f04backed Yes | 0c | 2,633$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0824…3bd9backed Yes | 14c | 2,627$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa9…f309backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0507…40b8backed Yes | 0c | 2,446$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80e…b009backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…fce2backed Yes | 18c | 2,194$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 0c | 2,003$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…7ad0backed Yes | 1c | 1,677$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b3…7469backed Yes | 11c | 1,539$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed Yes | 9c | 1,444$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.08 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…2fb8backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…2ce6backed Yes | 11c | 1,250$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x611c…c982backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…11edbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…9325backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…8412backed Yes | 19c | 955$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.45 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20d…29bcbacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…ce35backed Yes | 13c | 709.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked Yes | 8c | 704.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…d4e8backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e0…f7b5backed Yes | 6c | 330$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…336cbacked Yes | 16c | 322$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27a…a0e2backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…2d08backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…6e72backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9667…791cbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce8…9260backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes | 16c | 122.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5e…b947backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bf…d0a0backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump sentenced to between 0 and 11 months prison time?this page
- Trump sentenced to 48 or more months prison time?No won
- Trump sentenced to between 12 and 23 months prison time?No won
- Trump sentenced to between 24 and 35 months prison time?No won
- Trump sentenced to between 36 and 47 months prison time?No won
- Trump sentenced to no prison time?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.