Us Politics · resolved market
Trump sentenced to between 36 and 47 months prison time?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1500796e23793afd7d001fac0699956955875e1b2dfed19db418c3c0f4f6628e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $768,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $318,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $768,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdba6…0218backed Yes | 0c | 99,999$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…5361backed Yes | 3c | 57,141$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.26 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…3d01backed Yes | 1c | 51,146$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d3…f13abacked Yes | 0c | 14,600$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…2ae4backed Yes | 0c | 14,450$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8f…a260backed Yes | 1c | 12,791$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x396d…dfa3backed Yes | 0c | 11,145$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked Yes | 0c | 10,671$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4be…6a58backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8925…f80fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,343$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 0c | 6,404$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 0c | 5,872$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…0ab3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9f…5f04backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…304bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb4…e842backed Yes | 0c | 4,773$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…84b2backed Yes | 0c | 4,773$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bb…5ebdbacked Yes | 0c | 4,072$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0db2backed Yes | 1c | 3,769$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…0f38backed Yes | 1c | 3,628$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 3,232$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…2fb8backed Yes | 0c | 2,642$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf0…003dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 0c | 2,256$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed9…5602backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump sentenced to between 36 and 47 months prison time?this page
- Trump sentenced to 48 or more months prison time?No won
- Trump sentenced to between 0 and 11 months prison time?No won
- Trump sentenced to between 12 and 23 months prison time?No won
- Trump sentenced to between 24 and 35 months prison time?No won
- Trump sentenced to no prison time?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.