Us Politics · resolved market
Trump sentenced to between 12 and 23 months prison time?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa88a783b0926a90c5e0a3e6543293570c16f620392f12bfc08dd194c614e7e00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,461,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $506,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,461,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c6…b6d8backed Yes | 0c | 525,245$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb61e…7d42backed Yes | 0c | 515,385$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c6…81fdbacked Yes | 0c | 510,236$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38da…42f0backed Yes | 0c | 499,566$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…0218backed Yes | 0c | 99,998$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…3d01backed Yes | 6c | 82,544$5,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,076.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…f7d9backed Yes | 0c | 65,148$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4316…7a37backed Yes | 0c | 60,137$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…5361backed Yes | 6c | 54,551$3,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,109 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd652…4b53backed Yes | 0c | 50,114$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50cd…3477backed Yes | 0c | 50,114$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee99…80e6backed Yes | 0c | 45,103$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…395abacked Yes | 0c | 45,103$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 7c | 38,990$2,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,830 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba40…2947backed Yes | 0c | 32,832$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb081…7358backed Yes | 0c | 30,068$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7484…a41bbacked Yes | 0c | 30,068$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…b4febacked Yes | 0c | 30,068$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e2…17a9backed Yes | 0c | 25,057$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e57…6151backed Yes | 0c | 25,057$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc4…6d27backed Yes | 0c | 25,057$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0f…9537backed Yes | 0c | 23,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x396d…dfa3backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…9f62backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x941d…9e09backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199c…bb56backed Yes | 0c | 8,958$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…fabcbacked Yes | 0c | 8,958$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4f…72b1backed Yes | 0c | 8,133$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa3…1a7cbacked Yes | 6c | 7,411$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +180%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…e921backed Yes | 0c | 7,372$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ed…e783backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf0…003dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0456…5149backed Yes | 0c | 6,280$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39f2…146ebacked Yes | 3c | 6,000$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.46 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13e…c564backed Yes | 5c | 5,555$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260c…3964backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e08…8e95backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b1…36cdbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3498…ee9dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…171bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,002$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0db2backed Yes | 1c | 3,984$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…fce2backed Yes | 3c | 3,733$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.09 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0507…40b8backed Yes | 1c | 2,685$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…a4d7backed Yes | 9c | 2,140$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…2fb8backed Yes | 6c | 1,937$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked Yes | 5c | 1,297$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…2ce6backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 698.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes | 3c | 696.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 3c | 441.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…0f38backed Yes | 5c | 434.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…9b86backed Yes | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…f5d8backed Yes | 6c | 381.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9667…791cbacked Yes | 7c | 306.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47f…f18cbacked Yes | 9c | 212.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bf…d0a0backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump sentenced to between 12 and 23 months prison time?this page
- Trump sentenced to 48 or more months prison time?No won
- Trump sentenced to between 0 and 11 months prison time?No won
- Trump sentenced to between 24 and 35 months prison time?No won
- Trump sentenced to between 36 and 47 months prison time?No won
- Trump sentenced to no prison time?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.