Premier League · resolved market
Will Portugal win Group F?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd569a7ce6a80e8c8892f86d4e969fccfe3a5998a674a09f50c3605d3a4b467f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 32c | 1,542$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.67 | 319 | 44.5%142 W · 177 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ae…d4ddbacked Yes | 70c | 1,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 30c | 902.94$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.88 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b24…ed6fbacked Yes | 74c | 673.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7328backed Yes | 70c | 441$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…5fccbacked Yes | 76c | 305.46$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c2…674bbacked Yes | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ca…7094backed Yes | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 30c | 222$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Yes | 72c | 173.04$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed No | 27c | 151.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb888…ccfdbacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…1d90backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 30c | 140.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked Yes | 79c | 136.05$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 25c | 134$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…d9e5backed Yes | 70c | 126.94$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3da…c114backed Yes | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…96a2backed Yes | 70c | 98.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc7…1897backed Yes | 70c | 92.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…e3e5backed Yes | 70c | 86.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…5794backed Yes | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…a12bbacked Yes | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +139.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…2478backed No | 22c | 77.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…9d02backed Yes | 68c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0a…c06dbacked Yes | 69c | 72.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +317%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc84…6f43backed Yes | 72c | 68.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…4ba5backed Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…1d3cbacked Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…2e6bbacked Yes | 70c | 41.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8784…f1aebacked Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9162…51e3backed Yes | 70c | 29.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ff…dd80backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de7…ed25backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b76…785cbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4d…7138backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…fd28backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eaf…7492backed Yes | 77c | 25.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…8819backed Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf2…081bbacked Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…3c29backed Yes | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd13b…3e09backed Yes | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe12f…5234backed Yes | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portugal win Group F?this page
- Will Czechia win Group F?No won
- Will Georgia win Group F?No won
- Will Turkiye win Group F?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.