Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump visit Gaza by Oct 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71f858c91aa699a1767473d49869e0fe1c6afb97640b737e2a28446eff965415
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $601,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $434,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $601,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 26,502$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.41 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 19,245$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.74 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 8c | 15,495$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.73 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1710…3344backed Yes | 9c | 10,787$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.53 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b9…4cf5backed Yes | 2c | 9,280$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 2c | 8,571$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.54 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b97…7fbabacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 3c | 4,960$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.43 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d1…ed0fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,993$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36d…290ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,917$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc91…99c0backed Yes | 1c | 3,367$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,119$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 7c | 2,925$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…84c5backed Yes | 2c | 2,869$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.73 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,230$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.61 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…c59abacked Yes | 3c | 2,069$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 3c | 1,448$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…4c2bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,303$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 3c | 1,124$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce0d…4c24backed Yes | 15c | 1,038$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 18c | 999.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce43…415abacked Yes | 5c | 962.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…c051backed Yes | 3c | 822.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86e…8642backed Yes | 4c | 786.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…676ebacked Yes | 3c | 747.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c4…0a7dbacked Yes | 14c | 725.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3620…3c8abacked Yes | 9c | 633.09$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd511…241cbacked Yes | 2c | 611.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 11c | 530$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes | 5c | 516.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 5c | 488.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a3…041bbacked Yes | 7c | 481.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 17c | 382.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 4c | 342.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 9c | 299.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 11c | 287$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…0f2bbacked Yes | 20c | 260.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 9c | 213.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 6c | 198.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 13c | 144.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -6.7wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf071…cbcbbacked Yes | 11c | 123.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 13c | 116.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a4…e77ebacked Yes | 9c | 113.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…7a4dbacked Yes | 22c | 113.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…8f37backed Yes | 16c | 102.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd16c…60e9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe391…8b9ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd646…f37ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 80c | 87.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 85.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x744c…efe9backed Yes | 14c | 79.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 78c | 33.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 79c | 15.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…0ac1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.