Middle East · resolved market
Israeli ground operation against Fordow before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ac8ad16428f9a27a115dbe3bdd9a5206117d06b1def7e5dcf8de31e4489cb52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 10,288$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…4d49backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 12c | 3,433$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8252…e65cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,126$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 5c | 3,090$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.6 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca7…d306backed Yes | 4c | 2,694$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 2,476$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.08 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 6c | 2,437$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.22 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,430$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.51 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 11c | 2,023$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.87 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.09 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…6498backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e72…0306backed Yes | 7c | 1,505$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.97 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,054$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc47…6edbbacked Yes | 8c | 925$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7f…be25backed No | 80c | 889.95$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.49 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…35cfbacked Yes | 5c | 873.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 14c | 850.21$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…b18fbacked Yes | 10c | 826.68$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 30cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 12c | 804.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 9c | 777.89$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 15c | 754.53$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.89 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…cf13backed Yes | 4c | 720.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x196e…e2ecbacked Yes | 14c | 692.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 15c | 684.05$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.36 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfb…c05cbacked No | 78c | 672.51$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…d278backed Yes | 33c | 618.63$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 601.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 17c | 599.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…8422backed Yes | 35c | 568.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38cf…1d60backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 552.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…e1e4backed Yes | 40c | 499.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b54…cb72backed Yes | 12c | 469.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 12c | 449.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 11c | 436.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…a66bbacked Yes | 5c | 391.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 71c | 375.98$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 11c | 319.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 9c | 311.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe120…9eb6backed No | 74c | 245.99$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf2…45c5backed Yes | 21c | 237.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f17…fecbbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…f573backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…0647backed Yes | 21c | 193.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x163f…11dabacked Yes | 17c | 171.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76a…9e82backed Yes | 13c | 156.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4485…6d42backed Yes | 55c | 154.3$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked No | 64c | 151$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f9…c808backed Yes | 17c | 139.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2abb…0045backed Yes | 11c | 133.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…ca90backed Yes | 13c | 116.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…e3ddbacked Yes | 19c | 105.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +65%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0d…2a33backed Yes | 20c | 100.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…254cbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x141b…0722backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…a363backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cea…48bcbacked Yes | 26c | 85.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…5deabacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 21c | 72.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +8.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed No | 71c | 67.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +4.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ab…fc03backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 70c | 33.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x856e…f8ecbacked Yes | 41c | 29.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x178c…f539backed No | 74c | 26.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…8b52backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…0978backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +8.1wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…37b7backed No | 75c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.