TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 10 above $185?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,840
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,080

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,840 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb793…16e9backed No57c681.27$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.76520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-74.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed No33c664.65$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.6348234%164 W · 318 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x622f…9992backed Yes79c560$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.810442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x126f…eeaabacked No38c525.09$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xadc6…d5e0backed No16c500$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824969.4%34 W · 15 L+9.1wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+26%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Yes67c497.09$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.951625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No20c398.14$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.765722.8%13 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed No35c370.09$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.427156.3%40 W · 31 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdcd…8789backed Yes76c271.99$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+92.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb02e…25e5backed Yes79c250$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.510928.4%31 W · 78 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No28c224.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2543838.8%170 W · 268 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No37c219.02$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2860229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e24…cea8backed Yes63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2251927.6%143 W · 376 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed Yes67c193.4$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9423253.4%124 W · 108 L+18.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes61c141.53$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9456548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes80c140.64$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6224126.1%63 W · 178 L-26.8wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-51.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x93f9…e350backed Yes78c135$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.815330.2%16 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No26c103.34$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.381,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb60…137abacked No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed Yes61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e91…c46fbacked No22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2250%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Yes66c96.29$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No24c83.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0219934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes56c60.15$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7786338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No32c57.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3717049.4%84 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff05…0258backed No40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked No56c46.79$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No39c42.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6421820.2%44 W · 174 L-22.2wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-54.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa63c…4ebabacked Yes52c38.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes75c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.751435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-50.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes66c31.49$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.712846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-33.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd04a…7520backed No53c29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0100…3cf3backed No53c29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82b9…c6cebacked Yes52c21.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes67c20.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.939124.2%22 W · 69 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xddd8…31a4backed Yes76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-55.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x62b4…3eebbacked Yes68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x378d…35ddbacked Yes63c18.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x144c…95c8backed Yes76c13.16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.