TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 10 above $205?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,789
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,949

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,789 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c5,509$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.351,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb60…137abacked Yes31c980.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed No75c696.3$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.887156.3%40 W · 31 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes10c300$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.825722.8%13 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No74c282.57$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.8756548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2361…e16ebacked Yes32c250$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4216844.6%75 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed No80c196.53$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3123253.4%124 W · 108 L+18.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x442a…7c94backed No23c163.31$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.752100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+291.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb45e…605fbacked No80c162.49$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes10c124.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1529323.2%68 W · 225 L-31.5wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-44.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x723e…ba7fbacked No59c115.39$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.315100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+158.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbfd0…53b4backed No69c99.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-34.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f87…4d9dbacked Yes31c96.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No68c80$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.643838.8%170 W · 268 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No78c61.78$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4986338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No42c53.85$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3419934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1660229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf370…e76ebacked Yes31c40.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadc6…d5e0backed No66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.64969.4%34 W · 15 L+9.1wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+26%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No75c38.68$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7924126.1%63 W · 178 L-26.8wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-51.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8530…6d21backed No67c37.66$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No61c23.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.012846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-33.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.