Venezuela · resolved market
Will Trump invoke War Powers again by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x231bff88879439b4e3d988615fa6fc68ed83fe59087a4d329e4fda47516d6a01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 11c | 643.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 11c | 637.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.91 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 599.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67f…70febacked Yes | 8c | 588.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 16c | 543.59$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed Yes | 13c | 447.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 9c | 421.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…f913backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2b…b73abacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 8c | 273.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 15c | 241.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 11c | 221.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 168.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 7c | 151.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 11c | 139$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…f71abacked Yes | 15c | 136.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe5…5788backed Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fc…3c36backed Yes | 12c | 101.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.