TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe72b…bfa8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
26
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: NHL, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 54 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$4.19
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+177.5%+$18.69
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$11.06
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.84
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.62
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+187.9%+$20.92
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.37
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$12.98
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.52
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$4.19
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+45.3%+$11.02
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.66
All 12 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+51.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wild vs. Avalanchebacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.24
Kings vs. Canadiensbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+100%+$10.13
Islanders vs. Devilsbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+150%+$19.88
Penguins vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+56.3%+$9.28
All 4 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$118.19
Wimbledon Final – Alcaraz vs. Sinner backed Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+100%+$265.01
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 6, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Timberwolves vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+66.7%+$10.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$9.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$87.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercurybacked Phoenix Mercury · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.77
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.