Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3074cfe4fa9b6835a88b6b2e5e19c5b01c7d1c4c0e8e892335fd8271a5b8f068
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 41c | 1,596$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.62 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 621.54$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.06 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 60c | 490.34$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 47c | 340.22$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.41 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 306.91$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.14 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 277.03$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 36c | 275.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 253.44$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 220$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 45c | 197.77$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 63c | 192.97$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 58c | 168$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 38c | 158.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 154.91$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 45c | 117$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 100.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 34c | 99.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 99.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 57c | 98.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 98.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 95.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 38c | 91.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 87.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 45c | 86.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 37c | 85.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 53c | 84.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 77.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 37c | 75.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 72.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 42c | 71.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 69.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 47c | 68.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 33c | 67.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…e0c1backed Yes | 39c | 66.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 35c | 60.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 56.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 56c | 53.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 22c | 52.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 52.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…86b4backed Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 43c | 51.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 35c | 50.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 48.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 47.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 47.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 32c | 45.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…30a5backed Yes | 41c | 44.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…08e3backed Yes | 58c | 43.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 61c | 42.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 38c | 42.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 42.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 54c | 40.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 59c | 38.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…bfa8backed Yes | 41c | 38.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 36.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 57c | 35.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 46c | 34.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 67c | 33.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55f1…d323backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b1…dcc0backed No | 62c | 32.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 49c | 31.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 38c | 31.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 31.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 31.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 38c | 30.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 36c | 29.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5589…a3fabacked No | 66c | 29.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 61c | 29.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 28.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 27.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.