Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65d9c82ebd468e67c120900e45418c979349f83f2bb1b9465d84d7e079ecbad8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 449.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 18c | 446.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.53 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 382.84$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 4c | 327.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 25c | 282.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.22 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 14c | 279.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.68 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 14c | 279$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.6 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 65c | 213.87$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.57 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 44c | 184.47$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 10c | 161.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 153.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 145.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 13c | 135.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 123.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes | 78c | 116.33$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 33 | 90.9%30 W · 3 L | +10.4wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 47c | 85.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 15c | 79.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 15c | 78.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.88 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 75.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 70c | 73.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 18c | 71.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc4…3536backed No | 78c | 63.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 31c | 63.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 60.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…3ec1backed Yes | 21c | 55.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…ca4abacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…0250backed Yes | 20c | 49.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 51c | 49.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 22c | 46.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 72c | 42.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 26c | 41.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 29c | 37.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 36.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 34c | 32.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 42c | 27.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 20.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 55c | 20.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 53c | 19.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 78c | 13.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc8…7b89backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.