Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda8cc5f8e39058f40642ea6180f4c9f4a06ad21566284a25bbd2fb286bf2c6c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 38c | 659.86$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 644.57$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 593.49$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 434.09$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.8 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 31c | 348.17$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 344.91$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 265.67$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 235.39$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 220$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 35c | 210.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 58c | 185.66$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.21 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 9c | 178.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 155.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 154.92$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 154.25$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 41c | 148.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 34c | 144.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…ee4cbacked Yes | 37c | 135.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 121.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 63c | 109.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 74c | 109.74$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 41c | 107.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 99.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 35c | 96.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 31c | 91.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 21c | 87.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 29c | 86.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 36c | 83.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 82.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 61c | 74.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 74.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 67c | 71.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 16c | 70.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 42c | 69.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 58c | 69.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 68.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…e0c1backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 64c | 63.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 39c | 62.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 38c | 62.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 61c | 62.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 62c | 58.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 65c | 54.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 37c | 52.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 59c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 40c | 50.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 60c | 50.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 62c | 49.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 60c | 48.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 47.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 34c | 45.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 40c | 45.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 45.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…30a5backed Yes | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 43.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 42.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 42.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 36c | 42.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 38c | 41.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 36c | 41.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9291…8a20backed No | 73c | 40.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 38c | 38.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 36c | 36.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 35c | 34.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 55c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 56c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 32c | 33.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 42c | 32.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…6606backed No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 55c | 30.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…8849backed No | 73c | 28.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 45c | 28.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 27.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 44c | 27.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 55c | 27.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 26.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…3ec1backed No | 72c | 25.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 56c | 24.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 62c | 22.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 21.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 20.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.