TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,410
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,197

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,410 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes2c7,011$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.643,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes6c862.17$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.946114.8%9 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes2c709.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5630428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes4c632.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1628441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f6…9f18backed Yes6c601.77$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9514659.6%87 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes29c472.1$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.0656627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No72c452.27$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.1999963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes10c413.27$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8229520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes32c412.77$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.744,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No74c381.74$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.261,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f76…6cd3backed Yes29c378.98$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-67.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No74c357.67$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.512,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes25c321.17$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6419338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes13c312.81$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.863,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes10c299.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3130813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes18c275$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8520025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes14c269.12$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.688628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b6…49e2backed No78c248.5$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.47666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No74c236.11$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.451,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No77c227.59$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.623,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes24c206.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.363,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes25c201.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.316335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4034918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cce…71adbacked Yes26c188.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503540%14 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes19c180.54$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.685,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes22c178.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0716626.5%44 W · 122 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7531…35debacked Yes15c175.26$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.364117.1%7 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x07e0…ac5cbacked No70c170.83$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.472965.5%19 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xccdd…b6d3backed Yes30c165.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes31c158.93$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes19c151.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3334624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes21c139.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7593034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f30…6866backed Yes30c136.29$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.052846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+54.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes17c116$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8415923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes30c109.14$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.748833%29 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb37f…86cbbacked No67c102.91$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.29837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes29c101.69$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4917138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1528742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2916046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3085…a5adbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes33c96.79$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.921,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes30c90.52$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.866439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No72c88.54$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.792,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No76c78.39$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7438961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01f2…c3debacked Yes21c73.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6312538.4%48 W · 77 L-18.5wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-38.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes36c70.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2323633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No74c70.04$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.563,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No73c68.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4986173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x53d3…c151backed Yes31c65.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No77c64.61$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.822,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64da…2292backed Yes38c64.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.65824.1%14 W · 44 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed Yes32c62.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.14447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe009…121ebacked Yes29c61.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.942638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc69a…4d6bbacked No67c55.75$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.416863.1%106 W · 62 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c0…ae83backed Yes25c54.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7412223%28 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb211…10b3backed Yes27c50.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.679453.2%50 W · 44 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6688…fdcebacked Yes23c50.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.383842.1%16 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No68c50.17$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.992,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.571031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2078663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad3…7715backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145633.9%19 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes21c49.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5422236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes26c48.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7494919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes30c48.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes26c45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.71,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No72c41.79$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7853437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9e4…2d2cbacked No77c41.62$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.371850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No70c38.32$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.647,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c1…8c40backed Yes27c37.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.081952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+37%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No58c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.284,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf08d…5891backed No72c33.63$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.42977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed No64c31.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3610163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No73c30.67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.182,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No71c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.72,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.34,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9298565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e43…2e9cbacked No73c29.53$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.892458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4cd…0516backed No69c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.991957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+73.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe72b…bfa8backed Yes37c28.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.661258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf28…65cfbacked No71c26.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.831070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa915…879dbacked No72c24.93$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.98785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick60cpaid+44.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No70c23.04$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9867336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No73c20.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.559,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.228456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x901e…7389backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.058670.9%61 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick75cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No80c19.71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9435854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x072f…86b1backed No70c19.49$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8211151.4%57 W · 54 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No76c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6438758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No68c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0893837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No74c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6844659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245e…eab4backed No80c17.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.58574.1%63 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick77cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No78c16.93$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.6539158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No70c15.02$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5693734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa7f4…ec06backed No75c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.751586.7%13 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+27.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.