Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45ecaf6b7a3d393c2a1dca525a5b5bde74f8a28b1530d8849d67ff3314d8153f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 1c | 2,304$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 13c | 1,169$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 53c | 1,039$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.19 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 1c | 947.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 31c | 495.93$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.19 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe736…9d9fbacked Yes | 30c | 401.05$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.05 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 46c | 364.82$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.63 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 340.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.77 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked No | 3c | 337.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 314.18$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.32 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 42c | 308.11$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.45 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 32c | 301.6$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.47 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 25c | 295.59$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.69 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 13c | 289.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…f31cbacked Yes | 67c | 280.57$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.87 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92a…7d0dbacked No | 74c | 268.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 37c | 228.77$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.77 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 227.59$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.44 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…49e2backed Yes | 58c | 225.05$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed Yes | 51c | 208.94$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.94 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 201.22$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.42 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x121d…832abacked No | 6c | 199.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 186.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes | 27c | 178.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.05 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 176.95$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.61 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed No | 70c | 176.71$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.7 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 173.66$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea7…e13fbacked Yes | 58c | 171.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 33c | 163.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 28c | 159.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes | 70c | 156.38$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 30c | 156.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.55 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 144.34$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f30…6866backed Yes | 32c | 137.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.77 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 38c | 115.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.79 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 113.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 62c | 108.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…2396backed No | 17c | 106.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 35c | 104.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 46c | 102.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…71adbacked Yes | 30c | 100.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…a5adbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539e…8d25backed Yes | 62c | 96.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 44c | 94.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 37c | 90.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 34c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 35c | 85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 72c | 82.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 43c | 77.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 24c | 76.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 26c | 74.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9e…d485backed Yes | 32c | 72.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 20c | 69.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 29c | 68.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 28c | 68.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 37c | 68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 70c | 65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 58c | 63.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed Yes | 26c | 63.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…446fbacked Yes | 32c | 63.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 62.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 33c | 60.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 32c | 60.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked No | 35c | 60.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 80c | 58.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 53c | 58.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 25c | 57.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 41c | 56.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 56.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 56.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 28c | 54.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 45c | 51.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 50c | 50.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 50c | 50.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 68c | 49.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 25c | 46.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 30c | 44.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 34c | 44.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 28c | 41.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 79c | 40.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 28c | 40.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bc…e100backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc1…2496backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 35c | 38.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.