TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,839
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,456

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,839 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2097…7dc3backed Yes3c6,666$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.421631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick21cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes2c1,549$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4696313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes2c1,389$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.61,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes1c1,008$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0813215.9%21 W · 111 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes19c981.72$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.3223633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes4c650$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes31c640.26$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.832,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes4c590$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.096114.8%9 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6b6…49e2backed Yes45c581.87$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.73666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes34c514.98$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.7256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes27c468$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.6235429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes40c330$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.7290040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7bf6…5219backed Yes15c329.96$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.553935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No76c296.72$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.462,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ec…06c2backed Yes30c280.77$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.02425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes11c272.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.917138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cce…71adbacked Yes19c265.37$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.53540%14 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes45c261.26$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.4434050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7d9…47b3backed Yes19c256.44$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.540%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No72c253.36$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.861,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes21c245.62$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.188628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No49c244.4$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.754,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No75c228.06$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.823,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes14c213.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x539e…8d25backed Yes9c187.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5e…75a4backed Yes53c184.43$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.751637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-42.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed No77c175$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.42,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes17c174.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3053437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2269…3622backed No55c171.76$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.764533.3%15 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No63c166.25$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3255855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No66c161.11$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.619060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes14c160.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.75,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3088…bd14backed Yes46c155$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.57147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick24cpaid-87.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No67c147.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.486173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes25c144.17$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8530428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes22c130.32$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.931,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes25c130.26$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.021,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes49c124.86$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.654043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes15c113.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5667336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d01…63f0backed Yes52c113$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.763265.6%21 W · 11 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+30.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes14c112.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6134250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe736…9d9fbacked Yes18c112.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+31.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes19c106.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes55c105.45$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5825344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes50c102.66$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2149854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x216e…fda6backed Yes10c102.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.127118.3%13 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes14c101.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7934918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd65…c0b1backed No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.189162.6%57 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2029953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb37f…86cbbacked Yes44c97.93$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.83837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x87e9…6df4backed Yes13c97.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.295133.3%17 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes13c87.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.542,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf325…f8e0backed No66c85$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.594047.5%19 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick37cpaid-6.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed Yes22c83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3124841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes18c82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9418837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes15c81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.159,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes14c76.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7156131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes40c73.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5610633%35 W · 71 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes18c70.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.46016.7%10 W · 50 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Yes30c68.81$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8411122.5%25 W · 86 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc69a…4d6bbacked Yes54c61.04$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9616863.1%106 W · 62 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Yes42c58.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.352951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93d…27a0backed Yes26c55.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.63630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No58c54$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9241258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9e…d485backed Yes51c51.05$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf82e…ad17backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb211…10b3backed No52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.229453.2%50 W · 44 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1160519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2078663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No68c49.58$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.912,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No52c49$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5239157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No58c48.77$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.671,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4130…2fd6backed Yes54c46.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259832.7%32 W · 66 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9e4…2d2cbacked Yes22c44.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f3…8faabacked Yes24c41.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104362.8%27 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8798…45efbacked Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5f2…d72dbacked Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.33per pick46cpaid-74.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked No54c37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0215923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No58c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.284,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes40c33.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.616651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No54c32.12$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.816968%115 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No42c31.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.212,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No67c31$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3535058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No68c30.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.743,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb227…ef1ebacked No68c30.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.642470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb8e…d3b4backed No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62975.9%22 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No74c28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.284,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed Yes42c28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.764447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No68c24.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x41bb…b420backed Yes54c24.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.91520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9388…80aabacked No55c21.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.675468.5%37 W · 17 L+13.2wins+0.24per pick44cpaid+65.1%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.671,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49c1…8c40backed No63c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.921952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+37%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.