Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5696a16068d2f5654865397e3756fb990d19a441cd9662311c719d27ff12ba43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 8,249$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 2c | 799.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 6c | 731.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 9c | 623.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 16c | 567.74$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 559.27$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 7c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 20c | 394.09$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…8508backed Yes | 23c | 394.06$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 345.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 7c | 317.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 8c | 295.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…35debacked Yes | 19c | 252.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 15c | 251.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 17c | 235$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 10c | 223$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 8c | 215$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 80c | 214.39$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 11c | 211.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 211$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccdd…b6d3backed Yes | 25c | 200.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 14c | 181.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 170.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 10c | 149.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 20c | 139.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 20c | 134.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…a0b0backed No | 78c | 128.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 22c | 110.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 18c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 21c | 109.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…71adbacked Yes | 30c | 104.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes | 22c | 98.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes | 16c | 97.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 15c | 95.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f30…6866backed Yes | 14c | 95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 88.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…9c8cbacked Yes | 18c | 76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 73.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 16c | 69.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29bc…e100backed Yes | 22c | 69.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe009…121ebacked Yes | 22c | 65.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 22c | 54.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcabb…c353backed Yes | 23c | 54.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 20c | 50.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 23c | 48.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 78c | 36.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 80c | 33.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…1a52backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…b989backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96cf…644abacked No | 80c | 19.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 79c | 19.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…7d89backed No | 79c | 18.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed No | 78c | 12.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.