TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,075
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,959

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,075 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xab7d…40babacked Yes0c12,221$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45ea…b278backed Yes1c2,977$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf827…ca4fbacked Yes3c1,114$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64a9…de84backed Yes4c1,103$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes28c767.32$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.2540226.9%108 W · 294 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c642$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.75,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes27c500$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.1756434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes30c499.7$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.2126540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b1f…e691backed No60c338.44$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.232330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No71c336.03$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6331649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed Yes20c299.65$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4715435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x600c…908bbacked No70c283.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed No75c266$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.5311038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cbb…ca06backed No76c263.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.622857.1%16 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No64c245.81$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.543,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes34c240.13$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8174338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes16c238$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.442,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No74c234.06$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.912,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No72c221.86$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.8123666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No65c215.68$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.2110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes12c213.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes41c195.41$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8827047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes31c169.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.953,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1103…fd39backed No61c162.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.871369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No70c154.31$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.663,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd090…3bc5backed Yes20c152.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No71c150.35$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.63,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes18c142.84$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.54839.6%19 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No72c139.3$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.565,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x738f…ba83backed Yes36c129.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.06850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes12c123.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes33c120$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.611835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda89…6215backed Yes26c113.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+53.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes23c113.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.128,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes25c111.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.161,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes36c106.17$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.899744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde85…7ffcbacked Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.540%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ecd…9b27backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.582937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.687647.4%36 W · 40 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9929732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes25c95.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.84,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x634d…4d02backed Yes31c95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.912747.2%60 W · 67 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed No66c93.01$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4125839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No75c92.47$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.283459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d9f…012fbacked Yes27c91.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes27c90$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.13,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No72c84.81$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.422,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No74c83.84$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.963,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes30c83.84$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1580130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No70c81.09$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5671159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No76c79.78$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1892678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No75c78.62$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.623,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd3…98efbacked No74c77.55$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.161353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes39c76.7$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No66c73.78$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.124,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No71c73.02$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.057,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes26c72.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.832,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes28c70.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No64c70.69$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4565353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes27c70$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.916437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes41c70$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.771,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No72c68.12$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0734853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes39c62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.352,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes33c60.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209239.1%36 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1834846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes26c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.671031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.23,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.110439.4%41 W · 63 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes25c59.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No77c58.3$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.391,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No71c57.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8498565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes25c55.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1421236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes30c51.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.371,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes29c51.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153948.7%19 W · 20 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+27.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No72c51$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.494,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed No64c50.9$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3234533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d10…29e8backed Yes26c50.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bf5…606bbacked Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.751,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b1a…4c96backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dd9…3c35backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.52330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-47.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5201…34c3backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186349.2%31 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41a4…cbdfbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7082…3a10backed Yes23c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.53528.6%10 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38d6…d072backed Yes25c47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.917057.1%40 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8db6…8679backed No61c40.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.982466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+100.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2827…cdd9backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.24per pick43cpaid-47%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No74c39.31$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.12,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No74c38.64$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No59c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.124,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No77c30.07$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.92,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bbe…f8b0backed No78c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.56358.7%37 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec42…5ffbbacked No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615176.8%116 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick76cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.160519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.