Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87fb2c36fc678a8bead6e93490ee307fa906fb20a4e524f1fde29e2b4d51c03c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 571.25$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 62c | 313$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.36 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…d8d3backed No | 17c | 289.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 267.85$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 221$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 12c | 214.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 200.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 56c | 193.1$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 50c | 187.6$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 44c | 171.95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 57c | 170.28$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 60c | 167.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 35c | 162.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 157.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 52c | 155.18$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 45c | 154.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 37c | 153$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 136.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 65c | 135$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 63c | 130.24$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 46c | 129.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 43c | 120.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 114.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 112.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 43c | 112.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 43c | 108.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 39c | 106.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 48c | 103.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 62c | 102.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 45c | 99.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 52c | 97.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 94.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 43c | 92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 48c | 85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 70c | 83.67$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 49c | 78.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 77.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 64c | 76.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 66c | 75.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 40c | 74.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 44c | 73.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 69.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 68.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 52c | 61.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 39c | 61.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 61.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 59.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 74c | 59.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 31c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 71c | 56.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 46c | 51.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 27c | 51.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 59c | 51.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 35c | 47.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 65c | 46.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…2a5fbacked No | 56c | 46.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 44.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbc…d2e1backed No | 36c | 44.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd7…19bfbacked Yes | 48c | 43.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…bfa8backed No | 54c | 40.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 79c | 38.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5296…39cdbacked No | 57c | 35.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 51c | 34.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fa…7baabacked Yes | 48c | 34.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 64c | 32.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…b2dcbacked Yes | 45c | 30.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 68c | 29.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed Yes | 56c | 29.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 43c | 28.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 55c | 25.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 43c | 24.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…1052backed No | 68c | 24.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 58c | 23.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…8b3bbacked No | 62c | 23.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e47…e1ecbacked Yes | 45c | 22.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…aec5backed Yes | 63c | 20.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…4c65backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…6e79backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…d0e4backed Yes | 68c | 15.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.