Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cfafb24ec889903bb10c954893b015e0c49105c9376666e746fc99b037b6dcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 17c | 369.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 349.71$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 18c | 346.51$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 293.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 19c | 287.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 287.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 258.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 13c | 234.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 208.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 21c | 190.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 183.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 29c | 170.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 14c | 157.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 151.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 147.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 28c | 145.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 17c | 135$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 11c | 94.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 14c | 92.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed Yes | 14c | 91.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 13c | 86.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 84.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 15c | 84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 12c | 83.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 81.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 22c | 80.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 22c | 68.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…6468backed Yes | 32c | 62.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 21c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 54.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…cd87backed Yes | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 24c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 28c | 51.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9379…1145backed Yes | 31c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 46.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 63c | 40.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 35c | 32.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 27.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 79c | 21.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4458…f4e4backed No | 69c | 21.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…7db5backed No | 78c | 21.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 20.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 71c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.