TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,567
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,835

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,567 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes58c680.66$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.989337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No60c452.14$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.512142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee49…155ebacked Yes71c431.13$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.332842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No59c349.44$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.3413748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No52c299.98$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.2721844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes36c284.42$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.139231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No50c278$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.6235258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No29c264.22$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.2540648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No42c261.78$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.021758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+36.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No29c252.76$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.7721854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes31c247.93$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9844138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c226.62$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2927521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes37c224.04$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1114842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes25c222.2$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2332748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes30c221.41$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.65616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-75.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes37c200$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.855536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No70c196.39$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2632354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No65c193.33$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.391,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No60c192.1$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.0112055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No31c184.47$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.537353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes37c181.27$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4418638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No74c173.02$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.759160.4%55 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes28c169.13$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.36837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes69c157.81$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.217741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3680…f087backed Yes29c140.37$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8340%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No64c137$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2815766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes36c135.14$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.651338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes38c127.94$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.41861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8db…458dbacked Yes78c125$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-43.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked No32c121.24$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.56731.3%21 W · 46 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+66.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No70c112.89$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.025072%36 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick72cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes21c112.79$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8523044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes30c110.9$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.388038.8%31 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No59c110.79$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.223174.2%23 W · 8 L+6.1wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+40.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No25c105.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0216051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes31c103.68$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.142729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes50c102.65$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1112640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No67c102.4$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6734354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353735.1%13 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick24cpaid-3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda56…4176backed Yes71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No38c99.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.491764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+44.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes26c97$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6260%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes35c96.6$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.295044%22 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf745…bf49backed Yes35c96.49$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes31c96.01$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4910542.9%45 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes36c93.5$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.127030%21 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes79c93.47$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.252060%12 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes53c93$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2913357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes25c90.89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.91346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No47c90.2$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7815056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No65c90$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.220065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ed4…7a7dbacked No61c88.09$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.771758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes29c87.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4488448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No39c86.38$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.075875.9%44 W · 14 L+7.8wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No49c85.85$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4316852.4%88 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No64c85$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6314467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No59c84.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.391070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No33c83.83$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.943551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes33c83.04$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.592055%11 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No50c83$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8439952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No58c82.31$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6639414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes43c81.74$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes26c79.96$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.514436.4%16 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes32c79.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4312055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c78.63$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5218035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed Yes42c75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+27%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No46c74.49$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.872161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+32.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes29c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0316738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f13…7107backed Yes59c70$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x25d2…ac81backed Yes74c70$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6508…c045backed Yes43c69.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.11030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes42c69.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.553743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes75c69.26$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.72075%15 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes38c69$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.471560%9 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bee…e91ebacked Yes65c68$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf27a…8651backed Yes72c66.55$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes34c64.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.717842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed Yes33c63.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9190%0 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes32c63.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203033.3%10 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc621…a6fabacked Yes78c62.82$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes37c62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.712147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No57c60.04$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.822100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2136055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes23c59.81$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8826632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes70c56.17$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.15837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes31c55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.052030%6 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes32c54.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.312238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No74c54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.043666.7%24 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes61c53.94$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.884852.1%25 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1387…24a7backed Yes44c52.12$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.021421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3272…3845backed Yes35c51.22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.93837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes40c51.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.411050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No47c50.77$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7916755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No28c50.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.084841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes37c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2510030%30 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.517952.5%94 W · 85 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd7f3…52d8backed No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.51861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes67c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.251637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.691735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.