World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8017d31a1e0d821d8a127a0549a4e123ba6604d719a6da0058b4a03e72b942a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 58c | 680.66$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.98 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 60c | 452.14$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.51 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee49…155ebacked Yes | 71c | 431.13$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.33 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 59c | 349.44$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.34 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 299.98$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.27 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 284.42$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 278$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.62 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 264.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.25 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 42c | 261.78$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.02 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 252.76$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.77 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 247.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 226.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 37c | 224.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 222.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 30c | 221.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 37c | 200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 196.39$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 193.33$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 60c | 192.1$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.01 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 31c | 184.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 37c | 181.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 173.02$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 28c | 169.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 69c | 157.81$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 29c | 140.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 137$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 36c | 135.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 38c | 127.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…458dbacked Yes | 78c | 125$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 32c | 121.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 112.89$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 112.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 30c | 110.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 59c | 110.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 25c | 105.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.02 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 31c | 103.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 102.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 102.4$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 26c | 97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 35c | 96.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 35c | 96.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 31c | 96.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 93.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 79c | 93.47$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 53c | 93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 25c | 90.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 47c | 90.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…7a7dbacked No | 61c | 88.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 87.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 39c | 86.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 49c | 85.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 59c | 84.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 33c | 83.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 33c | 83.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 82.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 43c | 81.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 79.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 32c | 79.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 78.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 46c | 74.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…7107backed Yes | 59c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d2…ac81backed Yes | 74c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…c045backed Yes | 43c | 69.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 42c | 69.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 75c | 69.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 38c | 69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…e91ebacked Yes | 65c | 68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…8651backed Yes | 72c | 66.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 34c | 64.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 33c | 63.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 32c | 63.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…a6fabacked Yes | 78c | 62.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 37c | 62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 57c | 60.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 59.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 70c | 56.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 32c | 54.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 61c | 53.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1387…24a7backed Yes | 44c | 52.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 35c | 51.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 40c | 51.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 47c | 50.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 28c | 50.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 67c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.