World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7a85910e8a376bc7b3c934e54a074779c8c0788aedcd3657a21b8ff82a7bc3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 7c | 1,552$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.06 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 1,061$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.41 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 1c | 800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 2c | 675.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 401.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 306.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 10c | 255.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1387…24a7backed Yes | 8c | 242.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 9c | 232.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 19c | 231.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 10c | 199.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 5c | 189.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 10c | 171.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 160.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 14c | 156.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 16c | 155.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 14c | 153.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 11c | 145.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 14c | 139.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 14c | 137.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 12c | 133$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 16c | 129$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 15c | 119.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 14c | 116.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes | 13c | 103.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 15c | 93.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 14c | 92.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 11c | 91.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 11c | 91.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 13c | 88.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 14c | 86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 20c | 84.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 15c | 83.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 15c | 67.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 75cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 80c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 18.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.