Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e58a193e338611d73f7e752c34a14a483134d296c27cc31abfcd48d423bb7bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 31c | 1,901$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,318.77 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 692.66$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 636.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.65 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 594.12$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 37c | 436$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.52 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 70c | 400$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 70c | 350$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 342.6$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 315.47$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 309.23$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 301.36$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.91 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 32c | 284.4$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 265$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 256$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 247.15$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.34 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 70c | 233$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.1 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 229.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 52c | 220$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 208.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.02 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 27c | 188.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 11c | 188.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 34c | 185.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.91 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 36c | 160.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.68 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 73c | 159.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.79 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 35c | 149.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.94 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…fa82backed No | 7c | 148$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 141.01$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 136$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 71c | 135.32$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 131.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 42c | 123.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 120.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 70c | 120$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 34c | 117.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 44c | 106.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 35c | 102$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 78c | 96.68$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 95.81$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 36c | 95.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 20c | 94.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 93.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 48c | 93.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 33c | 91.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 28c | 90.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 33c | 87.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 35c | 77.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 68c | 74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 71.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 36c | 67.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2b…0bb8backed No | 67c | 61.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 64c | 60.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 60.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 59c | 60.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 35c | 58.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 31c | 58.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 44c | 58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 69c | 57.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 55.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 53.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 58c | 53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 68c | 52.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 35c | 50.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 50.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 68c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 52c | 44.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 42.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 41.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e09…9dc9backed Yes | 35c | 40.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 59c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 36c | 37.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 70c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 37c | 35.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 35.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 29c | 34.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 64c | 33.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 43c | 32.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…bfa8backed Yes | 35c | 32.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 35c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 33c | 31.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 68c | 29.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 64c | 29.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 62c | 28.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 43c | 23.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…5910backed No | 68c | 23.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C or higher on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.