Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10ee97589f63b92324ce1c41c66c6aacf4e8ff02324798d5fe06d9bed382d47e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 391.15$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 275.42$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 164.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.37 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 158.65$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.93 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 150.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.17 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 40c | 125.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.86 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 106.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 35c | 99.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 98.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.82$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 82.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 80.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 75.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 76c | 70.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 61.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 58.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 55.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 59c | 54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 38c | 46.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 32c | 43.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 67c | 38.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…769cbacked No | 65c | 33.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…5749backed No | 65c | 33.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 61c | 32.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 64c | 31.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6221…708abacked No | 65c | 30.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.42per pick | 55cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9291…8a20backed No | 64c | 30.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…8d64backed Yes | 39c | 29.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…bfa8backed Yes | 36c | 29.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 28.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 26.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 63c | 26.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc714…e39ebacked Yes | 40c | 25.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 21.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 19.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 18.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 17.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 60c | 17.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.