Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x449b4a2bfa723d9133c8da31f731e52c4f42966627b281f18a992ea67d570219
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 2c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 475.99$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.83 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 253.45$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf23…3f54backed Yes | 42c | 238.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 211.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.31 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 166$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 161.58$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.32 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…d0dbbacked Yes | 43c | 154.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 43c | 135.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 54c | 129.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 116.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 112.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 107.02$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 99.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 92.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 48c | 92.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 91.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 89.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 52c | 85.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 61c | 66.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 50c | 63.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 45c | 63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 48c | 62.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 41c | 60.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 50c | 56.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 41c | 54.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 34c | 48.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x208d…df71backed Yes | 44c | 46.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 43.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 51c | 40.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 45c | 39.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 39.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 52c | 38.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 61c | 37.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 37.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 37.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 45c | 33.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 43c | 30.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 50c | 29.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 46c | 28.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9184…67bbbacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 48c | 26.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 42c | 25.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 45c | 24.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 45c | 24.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 45c | 24.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 61c | 19.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.