Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7578adb3dde1918ede1a8bf87fd63aebb38c4df2e3518f137420f01fc40a0ab2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8eda…1d99backed Yes | 21c | 278.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 17c | 269.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 213.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 10c | 199.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 30c | 167.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 44c | 121.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 116.89$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 56c | 103.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 28c | 95.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 29c | 95.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 18c | 90.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 90.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…5f62backed No | 63c | 83.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 35c | 76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 29c | 74.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 49c | 72.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 72.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked No | 76c | 66.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 28c | 64.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 60c | 59.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 26c | 59.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 39c | 54.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 24c | 51.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 46c | 41.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed No | 72c | 40.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35d…5289backed No | 65c | 40.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 34c | 39.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 66c | 37.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 42c | 36.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…bfa8backed Yes | 34c | 33.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 31.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 27.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…aceabacked No | 67c | 21.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…eaa7backed No | 55c | 21.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c18…926abacked Yes | 52c | 19.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 77c | 19.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.