Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6d1043928f22639903c59e6a281c1eb90696ceec5c7d77e4d011f5dcba26eb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed Yes | 0c | 13,885$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 3c | 693.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 443.69$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 326.48$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 25c | 140.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 140.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 139.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 119.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 29c | 115.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 35c | 114.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…80a0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 96.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 65c | 88.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 86.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 12c | 84.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 25c | 79.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 73.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 72.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 72.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1c…90d2backed Yes | 33c | 70.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 32c | 63.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 34c | 51.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 73c | 51.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 26c | 50.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 32c | 49.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 67c | 37.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 37.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 72c | 33.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 31.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 69c | 30.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 66c | 27.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 27.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 69c | 21.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 21.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 66c | 21.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 66c | 21.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 66c | 15.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…68afbacked No | 69c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 70c | 14.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.