Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f69a6f604fc52889ae363c4c7ee2045538563857109878f994a81b1cef1cf7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 4c | 580.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 279.99$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 262$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 201.64$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.08 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 37c | 199.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed Yes | 58c | 189.59$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 32c | 183.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 173.69$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.27 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 38c | 170$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 164.84$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 37c | 160$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 31c | 133.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 17c | 126.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 33c | 120.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…43f8backed Yes | 25c | 108.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 102.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 66c | 96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 94.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 92.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 34c | 91.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 88.74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 74.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 63.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…6805backed Yes | 34c | 58.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 58.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 57.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 57.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…e194backed No | 70c | 56.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 66c | 56.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 34c | 56.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 33c | 53.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 66c | 47.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 53c | 44.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 40.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 38.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb4…40d5backed Yes | 35c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 63c | 35.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 32.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 44c | 32.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 30.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9076…f6a4backed No | 63c | 29.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 65c | 24.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 67c | 21.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 65c | 20.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 65c | 20.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 20.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b14…5115backed No | 71c | 16.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…bfa8backed No | 71c | 14.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.