Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcde63bf083dcf35cf590c4d8cc649ace2dbc7b9ebb567aa550ace60c1ed3c055
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 3,055$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,764.61 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 1,465$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fd…d854backed No | 57c | 655.19$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 49c | 606.21$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.56 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 69c | 470.71$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.83 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 390.92$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.79 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 387.77$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 58c | 384.66$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.1 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…7107backed Yes | 4c | 383.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.46 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 30c | 360$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 351.44$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.91 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 332$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 277.36$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 12c | 240.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.72 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 58c | 240$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 6c | 222.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 219.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 202.16$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 12c | 186.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 180.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 175.05$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.32 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 25c | 166.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.55 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 44c | 151.02$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…43f8backed Yes | 23c | 145.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 55c | 140$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 57c | 134.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.74 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 133.92$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 130$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 8c | 129.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.91 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 57c | 121.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 118.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 28c | 107$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.92 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 31c | 102.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.64 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 89.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 87.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 78.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 72.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…2005backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe93d…6ad9backed Yes | 46c | 65.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 58c | 64.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 33c | 64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 63.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 25c | 62.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 55.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…7e5cbacked Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 52.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 30c | 52.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 41c | 49.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 64c | 48.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 48.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 57c | 47.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48b…136fbacked No | 72c | 45.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 25c | 44.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 44c | 42.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…a5abbacked No | 60c | 34.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 55c | 23.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 70c | 16.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.