TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,241
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,697

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,241 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes42c3,055$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,764.611,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No55c1,465$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.258,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3fd…d854backed No57c655.19$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.46450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes49c606.21$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.562,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a67…5d96backed No69c470.71$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.8315841.8%66 W · 92 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes36c390.92$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.792,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes29c387.77$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.468,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No58c384.66$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.11,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…7107backed Yes4c383.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.465950.8%30 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid+29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes30c360$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.41,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No56c351.44$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.912,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No58c332$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.562,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No55c277.36$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.3410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes12c240.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.721,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No58c240$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.257150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No6c222.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.054,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No13c219.71$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.072,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes33c202.16$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.095,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No12c186.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3556322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes37c180.26$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.674,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No66c175.05$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.321,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes25c166.33$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.5572042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes44c151.02$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.984124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1244…43f8backed Yes23c145.5$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.51020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No55c140$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7715950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No57c134.64$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7489557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No63c133.92$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.034,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No57c130$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.314,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c30…b668backed Yes8c129.91$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.9115940.3%64 W · 95 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No57c121.41$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.781,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes30c118.38$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.959,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x987f…b37dbacked Yes28c107$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9210133.7%34 W · 67 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes31c102.64$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6459144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4079…7126backed No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5514054.3%76 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No61c99.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No31c89.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.776,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No55c87.2$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No57c78.36$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.283,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No65c76.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5045675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No66c72.52$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.223,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e90…2005backed Yes28c71.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.431631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe93d…6ad9backed Yes46c65.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes28c65$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02e9…9a18backed No58c64.13$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.24753.2%25 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes33c64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8886949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No55c63.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.544,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes25c62.52$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6422232%71 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes71c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.256,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes36c55.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.112,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes27c55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.153,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24cf…7e5cbacked Yes37c54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.022941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No64c52.9$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.92,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes30c52.28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.681,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3460550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No59c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.271,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3470148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x031d…87d1backed Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344330.2%13 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick39cpaid+11.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8710…f9c7backed Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes41c49.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.474,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9388…ad42backed No64c48.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2113959.7%83 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No75c48.84$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.582,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No57c47.72$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.371,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No79c47$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf48b…136fbacked No72c45.61$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.852161.9%13 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick75cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5749…73abbacked Yes25c44.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5312348.8%60 W · 63 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes44c42.46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7823731.6%75 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes32c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.216453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0506…bc49backed Yes57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.145658.9%33 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8596…a5abbacked No60c34.87$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.921040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f3…52d8backed No72c29.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5919071.6%136 W · 54 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x914e…8355backed No55c23.54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9816859.5%100 W · 68 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.426067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.439768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e3…5897backed No70c16.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.518431%26 W · 58 L-20.8wins-0.25per pick56cpaid-52.8%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.