Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37a1efbc260c33d2c4a4e0de38dbbb9d206c3455963d414a532780c92106e641
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,499$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.57 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 73c | 2,802$2,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 2,748$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 742.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 11c | 669$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 9c | 594.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 16c | 469.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.61 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 76c | 288.13$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 276.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521f…80cdbacked No | 74c | 247.55$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 232$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.28 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 190.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 12c | 173.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 163.92$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 16c | 146.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 35c | 143.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ed…21fdbacked No | 38c | 139.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.69 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 8c | 139.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d5…d80abacked No | 62c | 131.41$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 129.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 9c | 129.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 123$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 12c | 101.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 23c | 97.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 71.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…85d5backed No | 80c | 70.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2693…28a3backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 48c | 65.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 60.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 56.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 37c | 52.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 41c | 40.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 37c | 40.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 54c | 35.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb4…40d5backed Yes | 36c | 33.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 78c | 24.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 75c | 20.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 77c | 17.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 80c | 14.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 14.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.