Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb23a116cc60dc32905d7b7d4c0c90b89c33ff3c00c87ffd970efd79c2c68c3cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 15c | 1,597$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.76 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 28c | 530.1$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 4c | 398.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 27c | 375.45$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 374.12$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.83 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 368$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…6e26backed No | 71c | 364.03$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.03 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 348.27$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.54 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 24c | 343$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 39c | 330.63$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.84 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 25c | 318.17$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 16c | 305$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 66c | 302.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.65 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 35c | 299.46$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.24 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 293.67$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 278$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 27c | 277.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 264.95$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 23c | 257.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 26c | 212.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7988…d97bbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 198.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 41c | 194.39$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 24c | 187.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 178$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 165$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 76c | 163.95$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 158.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 11c | 153$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked Yes | 26c | 150.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 137.01$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed No | 75c | 133.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked No | 75c | 130.16$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 106.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 27c | 102.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed Yes | 39c | 102.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…efeabacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 94.96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 24c | 89.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 87.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 85.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 28c | 78.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 73c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 66.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…7325backed No | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed Yes | 46c | 64.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.7wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -57%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4022…5b06backed Yes | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 40c | 62.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…5f3dbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…9cf0backed Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 27c | 58.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 58.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 58.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…c88fbacked Yes | 35c | 57.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 56.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 23c | 55.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…cd42backed Yes | 40c | 55.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 37c | 54.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 73c | 51.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 50.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 61c | 50.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 25c | 50.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…3e99backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 45.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed Yes | 43c | 41.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 36c | 40.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 39.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…dbffbacked Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 37.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 39c | 35.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 34.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 33.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…1ac2backed Yes | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…1730backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…bfa8backed No | 62c | 29.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…d211backed Yes | 38c | 27.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 60c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f32…3288backed Yes | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…8849backed No | 69c | 26.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.